Democrats Still Have Unforeseen Opportunity To Keep House Majority

Despite pre-midterm projections, the Democrats still have a slim chance of retaining the House.

Republicans are much closer to the 218 threshold, with a projected 211 wins to the Democrats’ 191, but in Western states that tend to vote blue, mail-in ballots are more common. Counting them will take time, but there are over 10 states that lean blue where races have not yet been called.

This leaves about 30 races that could go to either party, but Republicans need to win just seven of those to gain the majority in the House. They are currently expected to win around 220 of the seats, just two less than is needed to claim the majority, according to the Washington Post‘s election model. An NBC model corroborates the Post‘s findings, projecting Republicans to win 221 of the seats.

While it’s unlikely that the Democrats pull off that big of an upset, Republicans did not come away with the sweep they had hoped for.

Hope for Democrats lies in the fact that in uncalled races, Democrats have been gaining on their Republican challengers since the vote counting has carried on over the past few days.

Eyes will turn west as counting finishes up. Races to watch include Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) who is going up against former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Their race will head to a ranked-choice tabulation after neither candidate was able to garner enough votes to claim the outright win. Peltola came in ahead of Palin, though, and will likely win again.

There is also a contentious race between far-right Rep. Lauren Boebert (Colorado) and her Democratic challenger Adam Frisch. With 99% of the votes counted, Boebert led Frisch by just .4 percent.

Races in Arizona, central New York and California are all down to the wire.