Biden Holds Four-Point Lead Over Warren In 2020 New Hampshire Poll

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a slight lead over second-place Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) for the Democratic 2020 presidential nomination, according to a new poll in New Hampshire.

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The Quinnipiac University survey — which was released on Monday — shows Biden has 20% support in New Hampshire, the first state in the country to hold primaries for the presidential race. Meanwhile, Warren has 16% backing and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) are close behind with 15% and 14% support respectively. No other 2020 Democratic contenders garnered double-digit support. Moderate Biden’s lead in the new poll is especially significant, among other reasons, because New Hampshire borders progressive Warren’s home state.

The new poll — which does not alter the lineup of next week’s debate — marks the first one that reveals Biden to be in first place in New Hampshire since a CBS News/YouGov survey published in July. Other recent surveys of voters in the state, like one CNN/UNH poll, have placed Warren in the lead and Biden in second place. The progressive Massachusetts senator was also significantly ahead in a CBS News/YouGov survey from last month.

Despite Biden’s lead in the poll, the survey showed Sanders leading the former vice president in two categories: enthusiasm and certainty to vote for a candidate. According to the survey, 57% of respondents said they are completely sure they will vote for the Vermont senator, while only 43% of likely voters said the same of Biden and 29% were certain about choosing Warren as their candidate.

The poll also showed 44% of respondents surveyed said they are excited to vote for Sanders, while only 21% and 19% said the same of Warren and Biden, respectively.

It’s also important to note that the latest New Hampshire poll found 54% of likely Democratic primary voters said they would not support Michael Bloomberg in the 2020 race. The billionaire former New York City mayor filed on Friday to be included on the primary ballot in Alabama. The Quinnipiac survey also concluded that 37% of respondents said they would consider voting for Bloomberg, while 2% stated they would definitely support him.

The Quinnipiac poll was held Nov. 6-10 among 1,134 likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, and marks the university’s first survey in the primary kickoff state. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent.