Democratic candidates’ fates will likely be determined on Super Tuesday on March 3. Super Tuesday is the day when the many states hold their primaries, totaling over 1,300 delegates that are up for grabs. The results of Super Tuesday primaries will likely point to who will receive the Democratic nomination, and which candidates campaigns should drop out.

The following states will be holding their Democratic primaries on Tuesday: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Vermont. There will also be the American Samoa Democratic Caucus and the Democrats Abroad primary.

California and Texas will be the most telltale states of which candidate will lead going forward. California has the highest number of delegates in the country, 415. Texas has the third largest amount at 228.

RealClearPolitics polling average from Feb. 16 to Feb. 26 in California places Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) squarely ahead of all the other candidates. He leads Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), who is in second place, by 17.2 points indicating he will likely sweep the largest trove of pledged delegates.


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In Texas, Sanders also leads but by a smaller margin. A polling average places him at 26%, in front of former Vice President Joe Biden (20%). Texas is Biden’s saving grace, potentially providing him an opportunity to gain delegates and regain footing in the primary. However, closely behind Biden is Bloomberg at 18.7%, setting the stage for a fierce battle for delegates in Texas.

Biden holds a comfortable lead in North Carolina polls, so it is likely he will easily win there. He has been averaging 25% recently, compared to Sanders’s 19.5%. The state allocates 110 delegates.

In Virginia, which holds 99 delegates, Sanders leads billionaire Mike Bloomberg by 5.5 points. Biden trails just one point behind Bloomberg.

FiveThirtyEight has predicted Sanders will emerge the winner of Super Tuesday, giving him the best chances of winning in every primary except Alabama, where Biden is projected to win; in Tennessee, where is tied with Biden; and Minnesota, where he and local favorite Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minnesota) are tied.

Sanders has the home advantage in Vermont, where he is practically guaranteed (99% odds) to sweep the state. He is significantly favored by FiveThirtyEight‘s prediction models in California, Colorado and Utah.

Oklahoma, Arkansas, North Carolina and Virginia are the biggest unknowns, as there has been little polling in those states.

They have forecasted Sanders to take home 587 delegates, Biden 305, Bloomberg 211, Warren 132, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg 70 and Klobuchar 38.

Sanders currently holds 45 delegates, Buttigieg 25, Biden 15, Warren 8 and Klobuchar 7. These numbers will change after South Carolina’s primary on Saturday, in which Biden is the projected winner.

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