In a recent voter poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, former vice-president Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by four points in Texas. Many other Democratic 2020 candidates trail behind by only a smidge, only behind Trump by at most 4%.

The results of the poll show that Biden is beating Trump 48% to 44% in the Lone Star State. The poll also shows that while Trump has the support of most of the state’s white men, most other groups support Biden. The president leads the former vice-president by 8% among men but is trailing 15% among women. Furthermore, Biden has the support of 86% of black voters and 59% of Hispanic voters, as well as 55% of independent voters. He is also leading the Democratic primary in the state with 30% of the vote, compared to 16% for O’Rourke, the runner-up.

The results from the rest of the poll show that Trump is beating Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) 46% to 45%, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) 47% to 44%, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) 48% to 45%, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-California) 47% to 43%. While Trump’s lead over many of the most promising 2020 candidates may seem grim, the fact that he is only winning by such small amounts in Texas, a state thought to be safely Republican, is itself a major victory for the Democrats. Biden’s four-point lead in the polls speaks to the dissatisfaction that many people have with Trump’s performance in office, as well as the changes in the state’s political climate.

For years Democratic leaders have dreamed of turning Texas blue and gaining its 38 electoral votes, and in recent years that dream has started to seem increasingly likely. While Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Texas by nine points in 2016, O’Rourke was able to come within three percentage points of beating well-funded incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in the 2018 midterm elections. If Trump’s approval rates remain at this low level, and if the Democrats are able to mobilize the state’s large Latinx population, then there is a chance that they could flip Texas in the 2020 elections.

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