Elections

Trump Leads Biden In Five Crucial Battleground States, New Poll Shows

New polls released by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer show Donald Trump leading among registered voters in five crucial battleground states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. President Joe Biden was found only ahead in Wisconsin.

Biden’s low polling numbers align with widespread dissatisfaction over the country’s direction. This belief has eroded Biden’s popularity among young, black and Hispanic voters, who have historically formed the foundations of the Democratic coalition.

With Biden and Trump now virtually tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, despite Biden winning over 60% of each group’s vote in 2020, such shifts have upended the electoral map.

Trump is currently polling the highest among black voters of any Republican presidential candidate since the passing of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

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These shifts coincide with the widespread desire to change the status quo. Nearly 70% of voters say the country’s political and economic systems need significant changes or be torn down altogether.

Only 24% of voters believe Biden could bring major changes during his second term, while 70% believe Trump’s anti-establishment populist brand of conservatism will bring changes.

Despite being consistent with the previous polls from The Times/Siena released in November, significant changes have emerged within the American political landscape. The stock market has gained 25%, Trump’s criminal trial has begun, and Biden has launched a multi-million dollar ad campaign targeting battleground states.

While these polls provide minimal evidence that these changes have benefited Biden, harmed Trump or alleviated the electorate’s dissatisfaction, the surveys indicate that the heightened cost of living, immigration and the Israel-Gaza War have affected Biden’s ratings.

Biden’s support has been steady among moderate and conservative Democratic-leaning voters. However, his foreign policy decisions in the Israel-Gaza War have also cost him support from liberal and progressive voters.

With less than six months until the election, Biden has maintained support among older and white voters, making him more competitive in majority white Northern swing states, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Riley Flynn

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