GREENWOOD, NEBRASKA - MAY 01: Former President Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a rally at the I-80 Speedway on May 01, 2022 in Greenwood, Nebraska. Trump is supporting Charles Herbster in the Nebraska gubernatorial race. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Three new major national polls indicated that President Joe Biden remains in a tight race with former President Donald Trump, strengthening Biden’s case to maintain his position as the Democratic Party’s nominee following his disastrous debate performance last month.
The polls conducted by CBS News, Fox News and NBC News took place before the reported assassination attempt on Trump during a rally in Western Pennslyvania on Saturday.
The results provide positive news for Biden’s campaign, showing that his numbers have not significantly declined in any of the three surveys since last month’s debate.
This suggests that the feared political decline among Democrats following the debate was not evident in the data.
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However, Biden continues to trail Trump by a slight margin since the debate and ahead of this week’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
According to the Fox News poll, Trump leads by just one point in a national head-to-head race with 49% to Biden’s 48%.
In Fox’s previous poll in mid-June, Biden held a 2% lead, however, the change falls within the poll’s margin of error.
In the NBC News poll, Trump maintained a 45% to 43% lead over Biden, consistent with NBC’s previous survey in April where Trump also held a 2-point advantage.
The CBS News poll, focusing on voters in the seven key Electoral College battleground states, indicates Trump leading 50% to 48%. This is comparable to their poll released a week ago, which showed Trump leading 51% to 48%.
To persuade fellow Democrats that Biden should remain the party’s nominee, the Biden campaign and its allies have been highlighting both public and private polling data, demonstrating that there have been only minor shifts in voter sentiment in the weeks following the debate.
Despite the latest polls supporting Biden’s assertions, they haven’t fully convinced nearly two dozen congressional Democrats who have publicly urged him to withdraw from the race and make way for another candidate.
And while the polls indicate that voters haven’t turned away from Biden since the debate, they also signal another concern: increasing voter apprehension about Biden’s age.
Not only is Biden consistently trailing slightly behind nationally and in battleground states, but more voters are now expressing concerns about the president’s age.
According to the NBC News poll, 79% of voters expressed major or moderate concerns that at 81 years old, Biden may not possess “the necessary mental and physical health to be president for a second term.”
In contrast, 50% of voters expressed similar concerns about Trump at 78 years old.
While it’s too early to predict the impact of the apparent assassination attempt at Trump’s rally over the weekend or this week’s Republican National Convention on the electorate, the notable stability of the race since the debate indicates that significant shifts are unlikely to occur.
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