SAN JUAN, PHILIPPINES - MARCH 23: Disinfection workers spray disinfectant along a street at a suburban area on March 23, 2020 in San Juan, Metro Manila, Philippines. The Philippine government has sealed off Luzon, the country's largest and most populous island, to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Land, sea, and air travel has been suspended, while government work, schools, businesses, and public transportation have been ordered shut in a bid to keep some 55 million people at home. (Image: Getty)
A coronavirus model by the University of Washington for Health Metrics and Evaluation used by the White House now predicts more than 200,000 COVID-19 deaths by October 1. The prediction increased by 30,000 deaths since last week’s projection.
As some states are reopening businesses and lifting social distancing rules, a new prediction by University of Washington for Health Metrics and Evaluation came out, projecting coronavirus mortality rate to raise up to 201,129 by October 1. The projections raised by 18 percent from 169,890 in the previous report.
The model projects Florida to be affected the worst, with its projected death toll rising from 6,559 to 18,675 by October 1.
More than two million confirmed coronavirus cases have been reported in the U.S., with more than 116,125 people dead, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
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As of Wednesday, 21 states have seen a spike in new coronavirus cases, with Arizona, Florida, Texas and Oklahoma having the record high influx of cases.
According to the IHME, “Higher mobility means higher transmission and more infections at the beginning of the expected second wave” in the fall. The flu season is also likely to bring more hospitalizations.
“If the U.S. is unable to check the growth in September, we could be facing worsening trends in October, November, and the following months if the pandemic, as we expect, follows pneumonia seasonality,” Director Dr. Christopher Murray said in the statement.
“What’s underlying that is two factors: The steady rise in contact rates, steady rise in mobility, and the likely continued relaxation of mandates over the course of the summer. Combined with the increasingly clear signal that seasonality is important,” he said.
Dr. Anthony Fauci urged the government to rethink early reopening of the states. “When you start seeing more hospitalizations, that’s a surefire sign that you’re in a situation where you’re going in the wrong direction,” he told CNN.
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