Cook Political Report Moves Six States In Favor Of Trump As Biden Campaign Struggles

Cook Political’s latest 2024 report reveals significant gains by former President Donald Trump in five crucial swing states and Nebraska’s swing district. This surge poses a threat to states once deemed safe for Democrats, while President Joe Biden struggles to recover from his weak debate performance last month.

In its most recent Electoral Map forecast, the nonpartisan forecaster indicates Trump now holds 268 electoral votes. Arizona, Georgia and Nevada have all shifted from “toss-up” to “lean Republican,” states narrowly won by Biden in 2020.

Cook Political also reclassified Nebraska’s 2nd District, New Hampshire and Minnesota from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat,” suggesting that Trump now has a viable chance in these traditionally blue states.

Biden is currently favored in only 226 of the necessary 270 electoral votes, with the remaining 44 being crucial toss-ups that he must secure: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

According to the Cook forecast, Trump needs to win just one of the three toss-up states to secure victory.

The forecast highlighted Trump’s strong polling in Pennsylvania, where he has edged ahead of Biden, though it cautioned that it’s still too early to determine a clear frontrunner.

Amy Walter, the editor-in-chief of Cook Political, attributed the changes in their electoral map to Biden’s debate performance, which has further diminished his November prospects.

“As of July 9, the Democratic Party is living in a state of suspended animation…Biden was losing pre-debate. Now he’s losing by a bit more,” wrote Walter.

Cook Senior Editor Dave Wasserman also commented on the shift, stating, “The notion that the presidential race is a toss-up was a stretch even before the debate. Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 electoral votes.”

Walter discussed that despite the hopes of many insiders she spoke with that Biden would withdraw after seeing his poor poll numbers, she admitted that this possibility now seems “remote.”

Since last month’s debate, Biden’s declining performance has sparked concerns among Democrats about his chances of winning the election and serving a second term.

Seven House Democrats have publicly urged Biden to suspend his campaign, while an increasing number have pressured him to quickly demonstrate to the public his ability to be a formidable candidate.

Walter highlighted how Biden’s debate performance underscored the critical issue of the president’s campaign: a lack of voter enthusiasm.

“The Biden team has argued that though these voters may be disengaged now, once they are made aware of the high stakes of this election, they will ultimately turnout for the president. However, Biden’s weak debate performance calls into question whether he can effectively deliver that message to these already disenfranchised skeptical voters,” she wrote.

Walters continued, “Biden’s challenge isn’t simply to convince voters that he can win, or that his policies are superior to Trump’s, he has to convince voters, including many in the anti-Trump coalition who supported him four years ago, that he is physically and mentally able to govern for another four years.”

Although post-debate polling has been limited, indications suggest that about 2% of support has shifted from Biden to Trump, according to Walter.

“However, given our closely divided electorate, even a small two-point shift is significant,” she wrote.